Survivor Insights 85: Who’ll Win Survivor Nicaragua (Episode 14)


What’s My Take On This?

1) Fabio: Fabio won the Immunity Challenge for the second time. This was a special victory for him for two reasons. He did not only saved himself from the boot but he also forced the four-person-alliance (Chase, Sash, Holly & Jane) to eat one of their own. However, it’s still hard to deny the truth. I want Fabio to win. He’s clearly a big favorite but his fate to win this season remains uncertain, especially if he will not win the last two challenges. Unless, of course, if he has the competitive edge like what JT did in Tocantins, everything will be in order.

Chances of Winning: 70%

2) Chase: Chase was playing an ugly game since the merge. It was not strategic at all, it’s purely ugly. Chase even deserves to be called as this season’s “wishy-washy backstabber” and the situation got three-times worse by voting against Brenda, Benry and  Jane. You might also want to consider him lucky to some extent. This ugly style of playing has helped him get into the Final Five without any vote cast against him since the premiere. Perhaps, the situation can go in two different ways. Chase either make the finals and be like Stephen & Mick (Season 18 & 19) or he makes to the finals, the jury will buy his excuses and win the title. What do you think?

Chances of Winning: 40%

3) Holly: Holly’s boldest move in the game was getting rid of Brenda in Episode 10. From that moment on, she continued to move forward. Although there’s a little warning on the wall that Fabio, Dan and Jane could openly voted her out, Holly still secured a spot in the Final Five. Her alliance with Chase and Sash looks solid but these two guys can instantly break it. Should she make a good run in the finals, but that’s a difficult road to take, she can win.

Chances of Winning: 60%

4) Sash: The one good thing about Sash is his ability to get the numbers on his side ASAP. He might have chose the wrong alliance by voting out Benry but it’s one big step closer to million dollars by getting rid of Jane. Sash is a good negotiator, he’s going in the right direction and should he be in the finals, expect him to put the jury under his spell. His only biggest downfall is – if he remains overconfident and does not try to win immunity.

Chances of Winning: 50%

5) Dan: Based on the editing, Dan did not do anything strategic. He’s clearly the weakest in the group and no one has attempted to vote him out since the merge. Chase wanted to vote Dan out when Fabio won the immunity but Dan got 100%  lucky once again the moment Fabio disagreed with the plan.

Chances of winning: 35%

Episode Rating: Jane was the reason why this episode became a nutcracker. It’s a scene not to forget when she grabbed the bucket of water to put out the fire before the Tribal Council. 9 of 10 stars

Finale on Sunday (Monday my time), never miss it!!

8 thoughts on “Survivor Insights 85: Who’ll Win Survivor Nicaragua (Episode 14)

  1. Thanks dean for sharing your blog with me. U and I see things so similar. I think Chase knows how to play but just doesn’t wanna own his decisions. His chances of winning aehhhh about 10 per cent. Sash I think is 9 per cent as I doubt one person will vote. He made too many enemies. If Holly or Fabio get there their chances are a lot better. I think either can win.

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  2. I think if Fabio makes it to the final three I would give him a 90% chance of winning. For Dan has a 10% chance of winning and I’m only giving him the opportunity if Sash and Chase are the ones sitting next to him. The jury seems to be full of gamers so I think Sash has a very high chance of winning. In order of who I think has the best chance would be:

    Sash 45% right now since he’s in the dominate alliance and I think Brenda and Marty liked his game and I think he gets Benrys vote (probably Kelly and NaOnka)
    Holly 25% right now since she’s in a dominate alliance
    Fabio 15% chance only because he has to win his way to the finals
    Chase 13% not great at anything and broke a lot of promises, from trying to please everyone
    Dan 2% never really did anything, he’s were he is no because he was a no threat. However, since he seemed to make no enemies if he makes it to the final three against the right people he can win

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    • Yep, Fabio has 90% of winning should he make the Final 3 but there are still five of them left. It’s either Fabio will repeat what JT did in Tocantins or Brett in Samoa. Brett dominated but he has failed to win the last immunity that could make him a millionaire.

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  3. I’m not sure Chase to attempting to play an ugly game. I think now he’s just so intent on pleasing everyone around him he ends up backstabbing or lieing to someone

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  4. @mike: I was confident too going in that if Fabio were to make it to the finals, then it was almost sure that he had it in the bag. I think that he handled the jury fairly well.. just genuine. It turns out that he is not as dumb as people picture him to be!

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  5. @Dean, don’t remind me about what Brett failed to do. He got so close on that one too. Good thing that Fabio never gave up, even when the odds are stacked against him. He continued to persevere, and I was most impressed with the final 5 challenge with the puzzle – wow, that was a brilliant come-from-behind win! He never panicked and even caught up to 3 other players (Sash, CHase, and Holly) although they already started doing the puzzle while he picked up the last bag of pieces. Amazing!!

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